The designation of the year 1500 by historians to delineate the transition from premodern to modern times coincides with the commencement of Europe's ascendancy to global dominance. Nevertheless, during this epoch, there was scant evidence to suggest that Europe would eventually surpass other regions. Here, Ilyas Ali looks at Ming China, the Muslim World, Tokugawa Japan and Muscovite Russia around 1500.
Wanli Emperor of the Chinese Ming Dynasty from 1572 to 1620.
Geographically, Europe encountered impediments, susceptible to incursions from the East and South, with polar barriers in the North and expansive oceans to the West.
In contrast to the populous China and India, Europe lacked agricultural fertility and remained fragmented into diminutive kingdoms and city-states.
Despite the logical advantages of unity against common threats, such as the Ottoman menace, European entities often perceived each other as adversaries rather than allies.
This fragmentation was exacerbated by natural barriers like mountains, hindering cohesive governance. Even the formidable Roman Empire struggled to conquer Germania, illustrating Europe's military and economic constraints.
In technological and cultural spheres, Europe lagged behind, heavily borrowing from Muslim neighbors to the east.
By 1500, Europe's weaknesses seemed to overshadow its strengths in comparison to rivals. Before exploring what propelled Europe's growth, it is imperative to grasp the global landscape, scrutinizing the states of Ming China, the Muslim world, and other regions.
Ming China
At this point in time Ming China was the most advanced, the most superior civilization on the face of the earth. It was as simple as that; China was second to none.
By that point China possessed a population of about 130 million. Now, although that is dwarfed by its present population of 1 billion+, it still was almost triple Europe’s cumulative population of around 55 million.
China was governed by its well-educated Confucian bureaucracy, giving it a sophistication which made it the envy of any foreign visitor.
It was technologically superior to any other. This technological lead was mainly due to the spread of knowledge helped by the huge libraries which existed across the land.
Interestingly, although Gutenberg is heralded as the Father of the Printing Press in the West, it was actually the Chinese who invented printing. The Europeans only invented their printing press a whole four centuries after the Chinese created their ceramic movable type in the 11th century.
Their technology was not limited to just that. Even small luxuries we take for granted such as paper or paper money were created by the Chinese.
In China, there existed an enormous iron industry producing 125,000 tons a year in North China alone. This incredible sum this took Britain a whole 7 centuries to match during the Industrial Revolution.
This iron output was mainly used for military purposes. Gunpowder was another military invention invented by the Chinese which the Ming dynasty used, along with the cannon, to rid themselves of Mongol overlordship in the form of the previous Yuan dynasty.
China at this time also possessed a huge maritime fleet consisting of both military and commercial vessels. China was trading by sea with places as far flung as East Africa and the Indies. Moreover, under the famous Chinese mariner, Cheng He, an expedition was sent out at this time across the world which brought never-seen-before gifts to the emperor such as a giraffe from East Africa.
What is interesting to note is that this was all done without plundering and murdering, some the Portuguese and the Dutch would later not shy away from.
But soon enough this naval enterprising would come to a halt with the resumption and intensifying of Mongol incursions into Ming China. This, and an invasion to conquer Vietnam made these expeditions and naval expansions too costly to maintain.
However, it didn’t stop at a mere reduction in maritime efforts due to financial constraints. The Chinese by then had imposed a total maritime trade ban, thus stifling entrepreneurship and the growth of the maritime economy.
You see, Ming China was led by the Han ethnic majority, but this maritime expansion was a legacy of the previously Mongol Yuan dynasty. These Mongol-led changes had incurred Han resentment whilst they were out of power, and the sheer conservatism of the Confucian bureaucracy further provided cause for China turning its back on the oceans.
At the time, less focus was put on the navy as it was reasoned that a land force was more necessary to fight against the Mongols.
However, even here the government soon allowed the army to falter.
Where before many of China’s greatest inventions were to increase the might of their military, soon the conservative Confucian bureaucracy came after the military just as they had with the navy.
They had started to gain a negative view of war, and this anti-war outlook soon led to the starving of the army of good equipment.
Knowledge was restricted as only a few selected texts were allowed to be printed, and entrepreneurship was further stifled.
By the time the Industrial Revolution had come about in Britain 18th century, China’s ironwork which produced such a huge amount of iron had largely been abandoned.
The Muslim World
At this period of time, the year 1500 that is, the Ottomans were Europe’s most immediate threat.
If one were to make an educated guess given the relevant context of the era, they would assume that there was a good chance that it would be the Muslim World which would dominate rather than Europe.
It was they who possessed the most rapid economic growth, the most rapid military expansion, and the most rapid advancements in the spheres of technology and culture.
Of these Muslim empires, it was the Ottomans who were the greatest and closest to Europe geographically.
But the Persians under Safavid rule were also enjoying a resurgence, Muslim khanates dotted the Silk Road, Muslims were gaining traction in Africa with places like Sokoto and Timbuktu rising as centers of Islamic development in sub-Saharan Africa. In India, the Mughals had entered from the North and had established a fabulously wealthy empire; in the Indies, Muslims had already gained hegemony there.
Compared to the European missionaries, the Muslims were simply unmatched.
As said before, closest to Europe were the Ottomans who had by the reached Crimea, the Aegean, the Levant, had with the use of the cannon went up the Nile, and maintained control over the Red Sea, the Balkans, and Bulgaria.
By 1529 they were already besieging areas as far west as Vienna, and by then had already ended to the Eastern Roman (Byzantine) Empire by capturing Constantinople in 1453.
Much like their army, their navy was huge and was active in North Africa, Italy, Spain and had taken Cyprus.
For centuries, you see, Muslims lands were technologically ahead and were beacons of scientific progress and development. And not just there; in mathematics, industry, medicine, and in architecture they were ahead.
Yet, in the same fashion as the Chinese, they too soon turned inwards, turning their backs to the world.
For one, the Ottomans were fighting on so many fronts that they soon became overstretched, and resources ran thin. To the East they were up against the Shia Safavid Empire, they were engaged with Europeans to their West and in Africa, and in Arabia they had troubles.
But that was all manageable, especially if they had continued having the great leadership they were blessed with up until now.
But no, it wasn’t to be. Instead the Ottomans had a string of 13 successive moronic sultans who ruled incompetently and not only held them back, but also caused the loss of their prestige.
The issue with this is not necessarily that they had such bad leaders, but that the Ottoman system of governance was so centralized that a single incompetent ruler could bring a whole empire to a screeching halt.
And whilst it is usually the army which is the beacon of technological improvement in most places, the Janissaries of the Ottoman Empire became so conservative and arrogant that it itself was the biggest barrier to Ottoman modernization and renewal. Rather than taking up the same high-class weaponry that was spreading throughout Europe such as modern guns, they refused and haughtily stuck up their noses.
Moreover, they started preying on their own peasant populations by imposing such ridiculous levels of taxation which ruined trade and depopulated the Ottoman towns.
The Ottomans by 1500 were facing greater military resistance from the Europeans, but rather than learning from their mistakes, and innovating like they had before, they instead chose to revert to conservatism.
But this conservatism was on another level in Mughal India. Whilst the elites were Muslims and partial to technological innovation, the masses were Hindu, and thus constrained by the extreme taboos which prevented modernization.
Such taboos included rodents and insects being forbidden to kill which meant vast quantities of food were destroyed to them; and other social mores around the handling of refuse and excrement meant that their town were permanently unsanitary, and thus the perfect breeding grounds for plague and disease.
These taboos would confound the British when they arrived many years later.
But that’s not all. Mughal India possessed an imperial court which had levels of consumption which would make even the Sun King Louis XIV bulk in embarrassment. In fact, the court collected taxes at such astronomically high rates that the tax season was often called the ‘eating’.
Whilst people often blame the British for conquering India and bringing an end to Mughal India, the problems the Mughals faced were really more internal than external. Had they made the necessary changes, and the same can be said of Ming China and the Ottomans, not only would they have survived, but they could have counteracted European might.
Tokugawa Japan and Muscovite Russia
The Japanese and the Russians were certainly not as large as some of the other empires mentioned here at this point in time at least. But it is worth mentioning them since they were showing promise of growth to come in later generations and centuries.
Japan, for instance, was helped by its geographical situation due to its status as an island nation.
Much in the same way as in Britain, this offered it a multitude of benefits which other countries which are a part of a larger landmass did not have. For example, it is somewhat isolated from the constant threat of invasion which its continental neighbors constantly faced. Korea, for example, was always at the mercy of the much larger Chinese empires which sought successfully to make it a vassal or tributary state.
But at the same time, Japan was close enough to reap the benefits of being linked to their more financially, technologically, and culturally advanced Chinese neighbors.
Japan for a long time was ruled by a collection of warring feudal lords and had an emperor who was a mere figurehead. Even at sea warlords operated, along with pirates and traders who each saw profit to be made.
But in the 16th century, one of those feudal lords, Hideyoshi, would rise above all others to unify Japan using European firepower. This ushered in a new era for Japan, which then also came to an end after Hideyoshi died.
But this resumption in fighting was short-lived this time as the powerful Tokugawa clan would soon form the Tokugawa Shogunate which would rule a Japan free from war and conflict for the next 250 years.
What was interesting here is like many of the other empires, they also stopped their seafaring activities. But it did not hurt them as much. Rather this unbroken chain of peace, and a stable government allowed for a new climate of entrepreneurship and economic growth to form.
But one thing does stand out about Japan which others failed to learn. Japan at first saw security in its island status, and for a time they were right to do so. But when the Industrial Revolution came about and the West started colonizing far-flung lands, Japan made the necessary changes to survive and adapt.
When the Perry Expedition from the United States arrived in Japan and forced Japan to open its borders to trade, Japan saw the threat and sought to combat it by technologically modernizing and catching up to the West. And this was what ultimately saved them from being colonized like many of their neighbors did.
Russia’s geographical situation was similar yet different to that of Japan. Unlike Japan, it actually shares the same landmass as Europe. In fact, most of Russia before its eastward expansion was part of Europe. However, they were isolated from the rest of the continent as well due to poor communications which prevented the Russia from being connected to the rest of Europe.
This meant that whilst it was quite well-protected from Europe and its warring polities, it did not have the same access to technology and knowledge Europe did.
But it also was growing, like Japan.
With the arrival of the musket and cannon from Europe, it had started an eastward expansion which easily allowed them to conquer the comparatively primitive Mongol horsemen of the east. This allowed them to gain a landmass which was by far the most superior in the world.
Yet, the Russians also had many problems. They were technologically backwards compared to Europe, with even the Poles occupying Moscow for 5 years in the early 17th century; they were ruled through the military absolutism of the czars, and there was also the institution of serfdom which took until the 19th century to eradicate.
Yet it had done enough to preserve itself and was showing the sort of promise which would later make it into a world power.
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