Most Americans are disgusted by politics. Asked in 2023 for one word to describe politics, they responded, “divisive,” “corrupt,” “polarized.” For many, polarization is the root of the problem. Writers lament polarization’s dysfunctional consequences, and a national organization devoted to bridging the partisan divide is flourishing.
Yet the 2024 election only deepened polarization. Despite a divisive, topsy turvy campaign, the polls changed little throughout 2024, and the results were within the margin of error. Most voters were locked in, and few changed their minds.
Many assume that our current predicament goes back to the 1960s. After all, the ‘60s was decade of dissent and division. It generated bitter conflict over foreign policy, race, women’s rights, sexuality, and a host of highly charged moral issues that would dominate American politics for the next half century.
Author Don Nieman’s recent book The Path to Paralysis: How American Politics Became Nasty, Dysfunctional, and a Threat to the Republic, challenges that assumption. Partisanship may be endemic, but polarization is a recent development.
Jefferson attacked as an Infidel, available here.
How Partisanship and Polarization Differ
There is a big difference between partisan conflict and polarization. American politics has always been contentious. That’s the nature of democratic politics in a country as big, diverse, and dynamic as the U.S. A positive vision may inspire, but negative campaigning and appeals to fear mobilize voters. Federalists charged that Jefferson was a godless Jacobin. Andrew Jackson’s managers alleged that John Quincy Adams had served as a pimp for the Russian Czar. LBJ suggested that Goldwater would unleash nuclear war. George H.W. Bush used Willie Horton to appeal to White fear of Black men.
However, there is much more to polarized politics than bitter partisanship and negative campaigning. Politics become polarized when support for the two major parties is closely divided and upwards of 90% of voters have decided which side they support. When voters get their news from sources that reinforce their prejudices and can’t agree on basic facts. When wild, baseless conspiracy theories become widely accepted and fear and loathing of the oppositionmotivates voters more than support for their party’s position on the issues. When politicians favor political theater that thrills their base over making the compromises necessary to govern.
In 1968, the U.S. was bitterly divided over race and the Vietnam War. Richard Nixon and George Wallace waged divisive presidential campaigns that appealed to fear and promised law and order. It was the opening salvo in a succession of culture wars that would define American politics for the next half century and counting.
Yet the country wasn’t polarized. Ticket-splitting was common. States routinely sent Democrats to the U.S. Senate while casting their electoral votes for Republican presidential candidates. And vice versa. Most states were in play in presidential elections and swung back and forth between red and blue control. Some Republicans were moderate and some Democrats conservative. Politicians knew they had to reach the middle, valued compromise, and got things done.
Richard Nixon used racially coded language to appeal to White Southerners, but he became the architect of affirmative action.
Ronald Reagan was the face of conservative resurgence, but he cut a deal with Democrats to raise taxes, reduce deficits, and save Social Security (a program he hated).
President Ronald Reagan with Thomas "Tip" O'Neil.
George H.W. Bush worked with Democrats to strengthen environmental regulations. He incorporated cap-and-trade policies championed by Democratic senator Al Gore into the Clean Air Act of 1991. He also recognized the threat of climate change and signed the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change—the precursor to the Kyoto, Copenhagen, and Paris Climate Agreements.
After surviving scurrilous attacks from the right, Bill Clinton joined his nemesis Newt Gingrich to forge a grand compromise on Social Security that was only derailed by Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky and subsequent impeachment.
George W. Bush worked closely with Senator Ted Kennedy to pass sweeping education reform that combined the accountability Republicans demanded with a massive infusion of federal support for schools that served poor children.
The Tipping Point
Partisanship hardened into polarization following Barack Obama’s election in 2008, when seven long-developing trends converged in a perfect storm.
US President Barack Obama taking his Oath of Office.
First, massive changes that transformed the media began in the 1980s. Cable TV and talk radio, then the internet and social media ensured that more and more Americans got their news from sources that confirmed their biases. News outlets proliferated. Many were fact free, spreading lies and wild conspiracies. Debates became hotter because Americans couldn’t agree on basic facts much less the best solutions to problems.
Second, the transition from an industrial to a service economy, coupled with trickle-down economic policy, led to a sharp increase in income inequality. After 1980, the top 10% did very well, the top 1% better, and the top .1% enjoyed wealth that put the Robber Barons to shame. But middle and working-class Americans struggled. That left many angry, alienated, and suspicious. The 2008 recession and the bank bailouts that followed stoked their anger.
Third, the Republican Party became more conservative as it made big gains in the South in the mid-1990s and after. By 2008, well over half of Republicans in the House and Senate came from the South—long the most conservative region of the U.S. The Democratic Party shifted modestly leftward while the GOP took a hard right turn. With moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats endangered species, those most inclined to compromise were missing in action.
Fourth, beginning in the late 1960s, immigration surged. By 2020, immigrants constituted 15% of the population, a proportion not seen since the 1910s. Approximately 11 million had entered the country illegally. Many White Americans worried that they were losing their country. The election of a Black president in 2008 reinforced that fear. In 2011, polling revealed that a majority of Republicans believed the baseless birther conspiracy that alleged that Obama hadn’t been born in the U.S. (and therefore wasn’t qualified to serve). It was a sure sign of growing anger, alienation, distrust, and willingness to believe the worst about the enemy.
Fifth, the Great Recession of 2008 damaged the Republican brand, and Obama’s convincing victory rattled Republican leaders. They feared a political realignment that would make Democrats the dominant party for a generation. They decided to dig in, oppose everything Obama proposed, refuse to compromise, create gridlock, and make the Democrats look ineffective.
Sixth, gerrymandering created safe congressional districts. By the early 2000s, few seats in the House were competitive. Republican incumbents had more to fear from the right flank of their own party than from Democrats. Moving toward the center to compromise with Democrats was unnecessary to sway undecided voters in the general election, and it might invite a conservative challenge in primaries.
Finally, and fatally, the GOP embraced populism. The party that had traditionally appealed to fiscal conservatives, the college educated, and the country club set found that by appealing to discontented rural and working-class Whites without a college education they won new recruits. Sarah Palin offered a glimpse of the power of populism in 2008, and the Tea Party Revolt of 2010 confirmed that it worked as Republicans re-took the House.
Populism brought new recruits to the party. Many were angry, hostile to establishment politicians they believed had sold them out, and got their news from outlets that traded in conspiracy theories. They didn’t want civil debate or politicians who compromised. They wanted leaders who would fight. Plenty of politicians—including many with Ivy League credentials—eagerly obliged.
After the 2010 mid-term elections, politics were polarized. Government regularly faced shutdowns and even default. What little the federal government accomplished was done through executive order.
Mainstream Republicans led by alumni of the George W. Bush administration sought to pull the party back after Mitt Romney’s loss in 2012. They produced a major report—the Growth and Opportunity Project—that insisted the party broaden its appeal to the young, people of color, and immigrants. It demanded a return to the center.
That didn’t happen. Donald Trump understood how the Republican Party and American politics had changed. Appeals to moderates and undecided voters had become less important in a polarized polity. There were too few of them. Mobilizing his base with a polarizing, populist campaign full of invective, exaggeration, lies, and racist and sexist language worked. It disgusted many Republicans, but Trump’s success and threats of retribution by his base against those who bucked him brought them around
Trump captured the Republican nomination, won the White House in 2016, and ultimately made the Republican Party his own. Even after two impeachments, unsteady leadership during a global pandemic, incitement of an attempted coup on January 6, 2021, and conviction of a felony, Trump’s base never wavered. They supported him as he waltzed to the Republican nomination and won re-election on November 5, 2024.
Where Do We Go from Here?
Since 2016, the U.S. has experienced three presidential and two mid-term elections. The margins of victory have been tight, and power in Washington has shifted between the two major parties. The result has been wild swings in policy exemplified by withdrawing, then re-entering, and once again withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. Congress is gridlocked, and executive orders have taken the place of legislation to address critical issues. American politics remains polarized, to the disgust of most voters, even as they refuse to budge from their commitment to one side of the great divide.
Those hoping for a way out of divisiveness and gridlock might look to history. From the 1840s to the early 1860s, conflict over slavery created bitter animosity and stalemate that led to civil war. The war ended slavery and realigned American politics, producing two decades of Republican hegemony. The end of Reconstruction, industrialization, and the agrarian crisis of the 1880s and 1890s once again left the two major parties closely divided with control in Washington shifting frequently. Political conflict was bitter and gridlock the order of the day. The election of 1896 broke the logjam and ushered in over 30 years of Republican dominance.
Only a fool would predict how or when or current impasse might end. If history is our guide, the most likely scenario is a crisis that scrambles political loyalties and permits one of the parties to achieve dominance. We can only hope that it’s more like the crisis of the 1890s than the cataclysm of the 1850s.
Author Don Nieman’s recent book is The Path to Paralysis: How American Politics Became Nasty, Dysfunctional, and a Threat to the Republic. Available here: Amazon US